OneMind

During his speech tonight from West Point, President Obama took issue with those like me who suggest that there are useful and eerie parallels between Vietnam and Afghanistan. He made two principal counter-arguments, neither of which holds water.

First, he said that unlike in Vietnam, the war in Afghanistan has the backing of a broad coalition of other nations (he claimed 43 in all) endorsing the rightness of America’s position. That argument fails on several grounds:

• The “coalition” of NATO forces in Afghanistan is a token force to which nations for the most part grudgingly contribute small contingents only because of their treaty obligations. Their presence does not constitute an endorsement of our policies.
• In Vietnam, we actually had a smaller coalition but the forces sent by Korea, Canada and Australia, among others, were substantial in size, fully engaged and signs of support from their governments, however sadly misplaced.
• The presence or absence of a coalition of forces does not justify or condemn any war. A war is not more just because its initiator can convince other countries to support it any more than it is necessarily unjust if it can’t drum up such support. War is never the answer to an intelligent question.

Second, he said that Afghanistan is not a popular uprising, implying that Vietnam was such a war. While it is true that there were some elements of the Vietnamese population who supported the Saigon government  and its U.S. allies and supporters, the vast majority of the country was not involved in any popular uprising. The North Vietnamese created the Viet Cong and in many ways were its puppet masters just as we were for the RVN government. There was not broad public support, let alone what could be characterized as a popular uprising that supported reunification with North Vietnam. In both cases, the percentage of the people committed to or even more than remotely interested in the war was almost certainly under 5% and probably less than 1%.

I disagree with Obama’s decision as much as I disagree with his historical understanding. I also do not believe he will be successful in getting us out of Afghanistan by July 2011 or even starting any significant drawdown of troops there in that time frame.

Dig in, folks. It’s gonna get uglier.

Posted via email from danshafer’s posterous

The parallels between the American experience in Vietnam in the 60′s and our experience today in Afghanistan are myriad and chilling. One similarity I don’t see many people writing about is the fact that in both countries, other Western nations before us had tried to intervene in what is essentially a local affair and been soundly whipped and sent home without supper. Or in the case of Afghanistan and the old Soviet Union, without much of anything left. There is little doubt that the Soviet Union’s loss of the Cold War (if indeed that is an accurate characterization of what happened) led directly and swiftly to the bankruptcy of the country, its breakup and its current standing as a barely second-rate power on the world stage.

When we decided to venture into Vietnam, we ignored the fact that the French had been there for years and made essentially zero progress. They were forced out less than a decade before we decided we knew better and could do it better. We all know how that came out.

Afghanistan bankrupted a major world power. Many of the strategies they used in this barren and backward land were similar if not identical to those we are now attempting, presumably in the mistaken belief that we know better or can do it better.

Many commentators have pointed out that Afghanistan may become Barack Obama’s Vietnam. If he announces this evening — as he is widely expected to do — that he is ordering another 30,000 troops into that nation, it won’t matter how he couches the so-called “surge”. He can claim he’s got a target deadline for withdrawal. He can argue all he wants about what would happen if we were to precipitously withdraw. But he can’t ignore the historical truth that nobody has been able to sort out the problems in Afghanistan at any cost. We won’t either. It is time for American arrogance to be shelved. End the Afghanistan misadventure now, Mr. President. Please. Before any more of our precious youth blood is spilled in a war that will at best be fought to a draw a decade and thousands of deaths from now.

Listen to your conscience rather than your political advisers, I beg you.

Posted via email from danshafer’s posterous

Tony Seton today has one of the most eloquent, moving pieces about why we should end the travesty, the ginormous error that is America’s folly in Afghanistan, right now. He points out that the odds are that the last American to die in Afghanistan is probably 13 years old today. This one really is a must-listen. Please do. And then please take some action in support of world peace, like join Ten Million Clicks for Peace and get your own personal Peace Impact Meter so you can see how much affect you’re having on the globe.

Peace.

Posted via email from danshafer’s posterous

As a byproduct of the great discussion going on at Change.org about the Afghanistan dilemma, I have learned about a great “new” idea for approaching the problem. Ralph Lopez and Najim Dost have founded an organization called Jobs for Afghans that proposes a Marshall Plan-style way bring the conflict in Afghanistan to a grinding halt in a way that it is hard for me to see how anyone could reject.

What incredibly clear, outside-the-box thinking about not just the Afghan war but war in general! Why haven’t I heard of this before? I am amazed and so greatly encouraged. I hope you are, too.

Posted via email from danshafer’s posterous

There is a good, reasoned discussion going on over at Change.org at the moment about how Liberals ought to stand on the Afghanistan dilemma facing President Obama and his administration. I say it’s good in part because I’ve participated (heh heh) but also because some very thoughtful and thought-provoking thinking is getting shared there.

Ultimately, I still have to take the pacifist’s view and hope that Obama either begins withdrawal or at a minimum stabilizes troop levels where they are. Violence is never the answer, to oppression or to anything else.

Posted via email from danshafer’s posterous

Internet radio commentator Tony Seton nails Obama on the Afghan war fiasco today. I couldn’t agree more.

As my friend says, to say many of us who voted for Candidate Obama are disappointed in President Obama is to plumb the depths of dark despair. He has failed us in so many ways. And also as Tony says, I don’t regret for a minute having voted for him (“President Palin” anyone? Yikes) but I’m saddened by the areas in which he’s chosen to compromise or, worse, continue the policies of a badly failed regime that he was voted to purge.

Mark these words. If Obama doesn’t get health care reform — including a public option — done in this term, he will be a one-term President. I used to think that would be a bad outcome. I’m not so sure today.

Posted via email from danshafer’s posterous